Chaseit features#chaseit#verification
The Skill page (forecast verification)
At a glance
How often we (and each forecaster) got it right. Rolling skill scores against observed outcomes — kept honest by the case archive.
Deep dive
skill tracks per-forecaster and site-wide hit rates for:
- Miss rate — no risk forecast, reports observed.
- False alarm — risk forecast, no reports.
- Probability of detection — pretty self-explanatory.
- Brier score — probabilistic calibration over time.
Skill divides by risk category, region, and lead-time. It's what keeps the Outlook honest — if we're routinely over-forecasting tornado in southern England, the score will show it.