Chaseit features#chaseit#forecast

The Outlook page

At a glance

A multi-day risk digest of the UK. Combines CAPE, shear, helicity, moisture and timing into a daily convective outlook with tiered risk categories.

Deep dive

The outlook page runs a composite score pulling from:

  • ECMWF and ICON mesoanalysis (CAPE, CIN, shear).
  • Met Office deterministic/ensemble for impact timing.
  • Our Stormfront model (see stormfront) for UK-localised intensity regressions.

Risk tiers follow TORRO-style labels (MDT, SLGT, ENH, MOD, HIGH) with numeric sub-scores for wind, hail, tornado, and rain. A plume signature up-weights tornado risk.

Click any day strip to see the parameter breakdown — every input is cited, nothing is blackbox.