Chaseit features#chaseit#forecast
The Outlook page
At a glance
A multi-day risk digest of the UK. Combines CAPE, shear, helicity, moisture and timing into a daily convective outlook with tiered risk categories.
Deep dive
The outlook page runs a composite score pulling from:
- ECMWF and ICON mesoanalysis (CAPE, CIN, shear).
- Met Office deterministic/ensemble for impact timing.
- Our Stormfront model (see stormfront) for UK-localised intensity regressions.
Risk tiers follow TORRO-style labels (MDT, SLGT, ENH, MOD, HIGH) with numeric sub-scores for wind, hail, tornado, and rain. A plume signature up-weights tornado risk.
Click any day strip to see the parameter breakdown — every input is cited, nothing is blackbox.