chaseit
Chaseit features#chaseit#model

The Stormfront model

At a glance

Our in-house UK-localised convective intensity model. Not a full NWP — a regression layer that takes operational model fields and outputs calibrated UK severe-weather probabilities.

Deep dive

Stormfront ingests ECMWF / UKV / ICON fields, plus our ADS-B-derived wind atlas, and runs several per-regime regressions:

  • Plume days — tuned on 2005/2014/2018/2024 Spanish Plume outbreaks.
  • Frontal squall — tuned on autumn low-pressure frontal MCS.
  • Summer pulse — short-term mesoanalysis-driven.

Output feeds outlook and targets. It's not a replacement for a human forecaster — it's a co-pilot that enforces UK climatology, since most global models are biased toward US Plains tuning.